DRAM Memory Module Computer RAM Market Trends Prices Commentary

“This new technology has the potential to deliver improvements in our productivity and cost per bit that are unprecedented in our company’s history,” said Kin Wah Loh, President and CEO of Qimonda AG. OK AGREED, THEY’VE LOST MONEY AND WANT TO IMPROVE PROCESSES, BUT TODAY 64X8 QIMONDA CHIPS ARE AT .95EA.  HOW MUCH SHOULD THEY BE? .25EA??? “We are the first in the industry to unveil a DRAM technology roadmap down to the 30nm generation, enabling cell sizes as small as 4F(2). The introduction is the result of our continuous innovation as a leader in the development of memory products. This step also opens up further partnering opportunities.”  THE COMPUTER MARKET IS STALLING AS IT IS….  NEW MACHINES ARE STOCKED WITH 2GBS OF MEMORY, DO WE NEED SMALLER CHIPS, BETTER COSTS OR IS THIS JUST A RACE TO REDUCE COSTS IN AN EFFORT TO TRY TO MAKE MORE MONEY?  THE HEALTH OF THE DRAM MARKET IS SUSPECT AS IT IS.

Qimonda targets to start mass production of 46nm Buried Wordline DRAM technology in the second half of 2009. This node will offer more than twice the bits per wafer over the company’s 58nm trench technology.  OH YIPPEE MORE PARTS THEN WE NEED… The company expects an additional one-time investment of approximately Euro 100 million in total during financial years 2009 and 2010 to convert its existing in-house trench capacities to the Buried Wordline technology, which it expects to finance from its cash flows. TELL ME HOW THEY ARE INVESTING WHEN THEY ARE LIGHTING DOLLAR BILLS ON FIRE AS IT IS.  This relatively low level of additional investment is possible by leveraging a combination of Qimonda’s Buried Wordline and lean manufacturing process with a mainstream stack capacitor.

FUNNY VERY FUNNY ERRRRR, NOT

The past few weeks is more of an idication of the growing changes in the computer memory market. eTT chips are their own market. Used for mostly low cost upgrade solutions and made with x8 chips, these are always under pressure as the Taiwanese DRAM makers over produce and have zero access to the tier one computer companies demands. Mostly used in China and remarked with major brand names and house brands.

Original factory UDIMM and SODIMM markets are changing with the times. Desktops are on the decrease in demand while notebooks and mobile computers are driving the market place.

Registered and FBDIMM too have an entire market structure. This market has gone up recently while the tougher to procure x4 chips have remained the manufacturers last stand in the dumping wars. eTT and uTT components do not cloud this market and again black top or OEM marked 4gb FBDIMMs are not exactly what HP is using these days.

Niches exist across the board in regards to specification and brands. Each market within this one memory module market is going its own direction and has its own unique demands.

Our take today is market is weak for spot players but remains poised to increase in overall consumption.   For the past week or so considering how slow it has been for the spot market, prices have remained semi-stable.  Certain clients and sectors are still buying.  Nuff said…..we watch….we listen….we learn….

This week has been flat in the U.S. and prices remained stable while commodity modules moved slowly. On the other side, components have been shipping from large brokers to top third party memory makers such as Kingston. Whispers of $2.65 128×8 667MHz component trades show a real indicator of market intent. This is a growing indication that the market is set to take off some observers claim. Sources from Qimonda and Micron both claim that the market is set to rise quickly and experience that once in while boom… Samsung has shown little to no offers as well. FBDIMMs and RDIMMs are set to jump up, while off the radar x4 components have moved sharply since mid December, in contrast the lower end players watch eTT and high volume x8 chips remain sluggish and choppy.

Signs of some health to the market are returning as DRAM makers are not in a need to move pinch and thus not willing to bargain on high-end modules.

An optimistic outlook  for the near future memory companies claim, especailly for 800MHz chips and modules, even while demand has been soft for most product lines this the second day of the week, Tuesday.   Most hype is noticeably in the FBDIMM markets.  Third party guys cheat the market with eTT components under the heat sinks, as mainstream customers can not determine what is under the, “hood”  They quote and offer to the market at much less them major brand components will allow.  Welcome to memory…  Meanwhile, real parts are scarce to invisible.  Tier one computer OEMs and asking large spot players for quotes at an increasing rate.  Information from Samsung, Qimonda and Micron show little hitting the market in way of lower prices or big volumes.   Whispers of a spike after the Chinese New Year are heard in folks closer to the chip OEMs.

Today Monday, the U.S. market is quiet, some showed offers with declining prices.  As with last week prices crept down slowly and firmed late in the week. We shall watch to see how spot market continues this week. Chip OEMs still claim prices to be firm with little stock.

Sample offer from California:

DDR II 667 1GB HYNIX $19.00 or bid HYMP512U64CP8-Y5-C

DDR II 667 1GB QIMONDA $19.00 or bid HYS64T128020H/EU-3S

32X8 DDR 400 SAMSUNG, P/N #K4H560838H-UCCC000 $1.36, lead time 2-4 days

64X8 DDR 400 HYNIX, P/N # HY5DU12822DTP-D43-C $2.10, ETA : 2/6.

DDR II 667 128×8 SAMSUNG, P/N # K4T1G084QD-ZCE6, bid, 10K, lead time 3-4 days

DDR II 667 64X8 SAMSUNG, P/N #K4T51083QC-ZCE60MD/0MJ $1.25

DDR II 667 64X8 QIMONDA #HYB18T512800B2F-3S $1.08 or bid.

DDR II 667 64×8 HYNIX, P/N # HY5PS12821BFP-Y5-T bid, lead time 2-3

DDR II 667 64X8 QIMONDA eTT, P/N #AET93R30D-B1 $1.00 or bid.

DDR II 667 64×8 ELPIDA # EDE5108AGBG-6E-E $1.15

DDR II 667 64×8 ELPIDA # EDE5108AJBG-6E-E $1.10

The fourth-quarter net loss for Hynix was 467 billion won ($493 million), compared with a record profit of 1 trillion (yea DRAM guys ran it up) won a year earlier. When their 64×8 MHz chips are seen at prices as low or lower then eTT based components no wonder, dah…