DRAM Memory Module Computer RAM Market Trends Prices Commentary

This week has been flat in the U.S. and prices remained stable while commodity modules moved slowly. On the other side, components have been shipping from large brokers to top third party memory makers such as Kingston. Whispers of $2.65 128×8 667MHz component trades show a real indicator of market intent. This is a growing indication that the market is set to take off some observers claim. Sources from Qimonda and Micron both claim that the market is set to rise quickly and experience that once in while boom… Samsung has shown little to no offers as well. FBDIMMs and RDIMMs are set to jump up, while off the radar x4 components have moved sharply since mid December, in contrast the lower end players watch eTT and high volume x8 chips remain sluggish and choppy.

Signs of some health to the market are returning as DRAM makers are not in a need to move pinch and thus not willing to bargain on high-end modules.

An optimistic outlook  for the near future memory companies claim, especailly for 800MHz chips and modules, even while demand has been soft for most product lines this the second day of the week, Tuesday.   Most hype is noticeably in the FBDIMM markets.  Third party guys cheat the market with eTT components under the heat sinks, as mainstream customers can not determine what is under the, “hood”  They quote and offer to the market at much less them major brand components will allow.  Welcome to memory…  Meanwhile, real parts are scarce to invisible.  Tier one computer OEMs and asking large spot players for quotes at an increasing rate.  Information from Samsung, Qimonda and Micron show little hitting the market in way of lower prices or big volumes.   Whispers of a spike after the Chinese New Year are heard in folks closer to the chip OEMs.

The fourth-quarter net loss for Hynix was 467 billion won ($493 million), compared with a record profit of 1 trillion (yea DRAM guys ran it up) won a year earlier. When their 64×8 MHz chips are seen at prices as low or lower then eTT based components no wonder, dah…

Tuesday of this week offers of 64×8 667MHz were $1.02 for Elpida (500K) and $1.07 for Nanya (50K), sizable chunks of chips considering the past week market was as hot as it has been this year. Original 1GB 667MHz UDIMMs were below $17.50. These offers surfaced in the U.S. Depression and dis pare were more abundant then true demand.

Wednesday those chip offers seem to clear up and rumors of Samsung stiffing Arrow Europe on an alleged one million dollar credit note, rebate or whatever you want to called it, based on a price protection program the two sides agreed to. Arrow allegedly continued to buy all year and in January the chip and dips hit the fan. A key Samsung European distribution manager quit as Samsung turned their back on him. It is unclear the conclusion of the story at this time, but evident that Samsung stiffed another customer and rotated another management position. Meanwhile end of the month billing on older price structures and are simply not happening. Samsung is under no pressure to move parts and is not motivated whatsoever. They showed and end of month push list that was void of 1GB 667MHz and 800MHz modules.

The month still is still hours away from being over in the U.S. and Qimonda seems to barking about raising prices as well and little has leaked in the way of anything that would be a deal from Micron.

Elpida and Hynix may as well join in with the ranks for Mira, as they can not seem to hold their water this past week. Mira parts traded at $2.02 and $1.02 in Asia last night. Hynix seems to be booking large DDR1 orders at sub market prices on finished goods such as 1GB PC2700 SODIMMs below the other CHIP OEMs. In the meantime, Elpida 64×8 667MHz seem to be less then eTT priced chips on some offers.

800MHz still a great bet…

The material guys over at Micron say it is a good idea.  Samsung would have a direct market path for their flash memory products under the Lexar name and a business model for promoting Samsung based memory modules.  A failed MyMemorystore.com may have earned Samsung valuble insight into the enduser markets along with a proven name in the memory module market Crucial Technology might make sense.

The details and motives are very interesting indeed…

Qimonda (NYSE: QI), based in Germany said it lost 598 million euros ($879 million) in the quarter.  The losses equate to 1.75 euros ($2.57) per diluted share.  Last year, Qimonda posted a profit of 177 million euros, or 0.52 euros per share.

The talk on the street is that Qimonda has a bright outlook for 2008 and has taken it’s bath in red ink and is ready for recovery.  Memory module original prices were in their lowest valley in mid December of 2007 while today prices have rebounded about 30% on the ultra tight market product group of the 667MHz 1GB DIMM and SODIMM.  Early January prices and pick up in demand for FBDIMMs and RDIMMs has also seen prices rise above the, six feet in the dirt prices, from December 2007.

Production has been cut in factories at Qimonda as well as other chip makers and they key question is, can they continue to burn cash to compete in the market and stay alive?  This question is kicked around at all DRAM OEMs these days rest assured.