DRAM Memory Module Computer RAM Market Trends Prices Commentary

In the grand scheme of the DRAM and memory module market, there have been recent fluctuations in the market prices caused by but not limited to high demand and low production of DRAM chips followed by an over production. Memory makers show concerns over the falling prices in the DRAM industry due to a large surplus of memory amidst a slightly weakening demand for memory upgrades. In recent years computer prices have seen an unexpected increase based on the fact that DRAM prices have been at higher levels. Price fixing is another underlined cause of the computer module price increase. Close to 80 percent of DRAM chips are sold to PC vendors while only 20 percent are sold in the spot market. Several large memory manufacturers have been involved in a lawsuit over price fixing in the DRAM market sending prices soaring and passing those costs to computer vendors and consumers. Earlier this year because of the high demand and a low supply of chips where was cause for a boost in chip production triggering a post-shortage excess in unsold chips and could potentially decline prices for the rest of the year. Because DRAM accounts for nearly 20 percent of a personal computer’s cost, declining chip prices lowers the prices of PCs and signals a turn in the market. The accumulation of competition between DRAM makers should further assist in lowering prices for memory to ensure that trend holds until the end of the year. The price decrease in chips should boost the personal computers value and spark a slight shift in computer sales which in turn should help memory sales when it is time to upgrade their newer machines. Brighter spots in the market remain server modules as well as x4 components.

Folks still can care about a few things and at under $30.00 online the 2GB DDR2 SO-DIMM seems to be one of them. Online sales have been brisk on 2GB PC2-5300 and 2GB PC2-6400 SO-DIMM memory module upgrades. A reasonable investment to max out a year old notebook. Additionally, many new machines are stock at 4GB 2X 2GB new from the factory. DDR3 204-PIN SO-DIMM modules in both 2GB and 4GB  are shorter as well. In the spot market the “Kings” have always traded higher end SO-DIMM modules as they are usually short or drop faster than housing prices in Socal, yet tend to attract the better quality customers. Today there is also a bit of buzz and a few specific OEM based part number specific requirements for other DDR2 server modules. Tiger Direct does not seem to be offering unreal rebate programs pushing prices well under sub market and back door excess cost, that is a good signal as well.

As the mass production of memory chips at Dresden is on hold starting April 1, 2009. The memory market seems stable to flat. If any shortness appears, it may only show in higher end 4GB DDR3 SO-DIMM and Unbuffered modules as Micron shows tighter supply. With the new release of the Mac Pro and later generation iMac and MacBook Pro computers from Apple and higher powerered XPS machines from Dell the market may be stable on higher density module upgrades. Hynix seems to be the only avail supplier of genuine factory original modules and prices are all over $300.00-$330.00…

Our take today is market is weak for spot players but remains poised to increase in overall consumption.   For the past week or so considering how slow it has been for the spot market, prices have remained semi-stable.  Certain clients and sectors are still buying.  Nuff said…..we watch….we listen….we learn….

This week has been flat in the U.S. and prices remained stable while commodity modules moved slowly. On the other side, components have been shipping from large brokers to top third party memory makers such as Kingston. Whispers of $2.65 128×8 667MHz component trades show a real indicator of market intent. This is a growing indication that the market is set to take off some observers claim. Sources from Qimonda and Micron both claim that the market is set to rise quickly and experience that once in while boom… Samsung has shown little to no offers as well. FBDIMMs and RDIMMs are set to jump up, while off the radar x4 components have moved sharply since mid December, in contrast the lower end players watch eTT and high volume x8 chips remain sluggish and choppy.

Signs of some health to the market are returning as DRAM makers are not in a need to move pinch and thus not willing to bargain on high-end modules.

An optimistic outlook  for the near future memory companies claim, especailly for 800MHz chips and modules, even while demand has been soft for most product lines this the second day of the week, Tuesday.   Most hype is noticeably in the FBDIMM markets.  Third party guys cheat the market with eTT components under the heat sinks, as mainstream customers can not determine what is under the, “hood”  They quote and offer to the market at much less them major brand components will allow.  Welcome to memory…  Meanwhile, real parts are scarce to invisible.  Tier one computer OEMs and asking large spot players for quotes at an increasing rate.  Information from Samsung, Qimonda and Micron show little hitting the market in way of lower prices or big volumes.   Whispers of a spike after the Chinese New Year are heard in folks closer to the chip OEMs.

Today Monday, the U.S. market is quiet, some showed offers with declining prices.  As with last week prices crept down slowly and firmed late in the week. We shall watch to see how spot market continues this week. Chip OEMs still claim prices to be firm with little stock.

Sample offer from California:

DDR II 667 1GB HYNIX $19.00 or bid HYMP512U64CP8-Y5-C

DDR II 667 1GB QIMONDA $19.00 or bid HYS64T128020H/EU-3S

32X8 DDR 400 SAMSUNG, P/N #K4H560838H-UCCC000 $1.36, lead time 2-4 days

64X8 DDR 400 HYNIX, P/N # HY5DU12822DTP-D43-C $2.10, ETA : 2/6.

DDR II 667 128×8 SAMSUNG, P/N # K4T1G084QD-ZCE6, bid, 10K, lead time 3-4 days

DDR II 667 64X8 SAMSUNG, P/N #K4T51083QC-ZCE60MD/0MJ $1.25

DDR II 667 64X8 QIMONDA #HYB18T512800B2F-3S $1.08 or bid.

DDR II 667 64×8 HYNIX, P/N # HY5PS12821BFP-Y5-T bid, lead time 2-3

DDR II 667 64X8 QIMONDA eTT, P/N #AET93R30D-B1 $1.00 or bid.

DDR II 667 64×8 ELPIDA # EDE5108AGBG-6E-E $1.15

DDR II 667 64×8 ELPIDA # EDE5108AJBG-6E-E $1.10

Tuesday of this week offers of 64×8 667MHz were $1.02 for Elpida (500K) and $1.07 for Nanya (50K), sizable chunks of chips considering the past week market was as hot as it has been this year. Original 1GB 667MHz UDIMMs were below $17.50. These offers surfaced in the U.S. Depression and dis pare were more abundant then true demand.

Wednesday those chip offers seem to clear up and rumors of Samsung stiffing Arrow Europe on an alleged one million dollar credit note, rebate or whatever you want to called it, based on a price protection program the two sides agreed to. Arrow allegedly continued to buy all year and in January the chip and dips hit the fan. A key Samsung European distribution manager quit as Samsung turned their back on him. It is unclear the conclusion of the story at this time, but evident that Samsung stiffed another customer and rotated another management position. Meanwhile end of the month billing on older price structures and are simply not happening. Samsung is under no pressure to move parts and is not motivated whatsoever. They showed and end of month push list that was void of 1GB 667MHz and 800MHz modules.

The month still is still hours away from being over in the U.S. and Qimonda seems to barking about raising prices as well and little has leaked in the way of anything that would be a deal from Micron.

Elpida and Hynix may as well join in with the ranks for Mira, as they can not seem to hold their water this past week. Mira parts traded at $2.02 and $1.02 in Asia last night. Hynix seems to be booking large DDR1 orders at sub market prices on finished goods such as 1GB PC2700 SODIMMs below the other CHIP OEMs. In the meantime, Elpida 64×8 667MHz seem to be less then eTT priced chips on some offers.

800MHz still a great bet…

Activity across the spot has been flat the last week for small brokers and eTT traders. Considering lack of demand prices have held in our point of view. Last night in Taiwan traders were willing to stock at $1.03 and $2.03 on 667MHz while Mira offered $1.10 and$2.20. Samsung original memory module offers have been less each day while there is healthier demand from top computer OEMs with open purchase orders for 512MB and 1GB UDIMM 800MHz. Qimonda and Samsung seem to be on the hold for any month end push while Micron has drastically raised 128×8 667MHz finished module prices.

Rumors of inside guide line prices are $20.0 and 22.0 for 667MHz and 800MHz 1GB UDIMMs at Samsung.

Monday morning update 7:45AM: Mainstream brokers and distribution were unable or not interested in filling this order.

Monday morning 12:59PM

Samsung M470T2953EZ3-CE6 (64X8 based) SODIMM 667MHz 1GB 5K pieces needed at $18.50 Target Price

Samsung M470T5663CZ3-CE6 SODIMM (128×8 based) 667MHz 2GB SODIMM 2K pieces needed at $43.00 Target price

If demand is weak, we should see these kind of prices available when the U.S. market opens.